Alternative Premier League table after 37 games, based on expected goals

Alternative Premier League table after 37 games, based on expected goals
A relentless Premier League season will com to an end next Sunday – not that we want it to.Sadly, the current campaign is only 38 games long because we’d love to see a few more matches of Liverpool and Manchester City slugging it out for title glory.6

Liverpool star Jordan Henderson celebrates their win over Newcastle but it might not be enough.

Even the top four race has got some legs left, despite Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United all flopping in recent matches.The Blues have got it sewn up and know they will play in the Champions League next season, while Spurs will join them barring a defeat to Everton resulting in an eight-goal swing and an emphatic win for Unai Emery’s Gunners against Burnley.The final relegation spot was decided on Saturday when Cardiff City lost to Crystal Palace but everyone can appreciate their valiant efforts and to remain in with a chance of staying up for so long is credit to the players and their manager Neil Warnock. But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’?Here at talkSPORT.com were always keeping an eye onUnderstat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below

What is expected goals?

• Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
• Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
• The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
• The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

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20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20Games played – 37Real points = 15 | Expected points = 28.3719. Fulham – Real position = 19Games played – 37Real points = 26 | Expected points = 33.2618. Brighton – Real position = 17Games played – 37Real points = 36 | Expected points = 35.856

Glenn Murray’s penalty ensured Brighton got a share the spoils against Arsenal

17. Cardiff – Real position = 18Games played – 37Real points = 31 | Expected points = 36.1816. Newcastle – Real position = 14Games played – 37Real points = 42 | Expected points = 36.7314. Burnley – Real position = 15Games played – 37Real points = 40 | Expected points = 41.356

Burnley boss Sean Dyche will be hoping to beat Arsenal on Sunday

15. West Ham – Real position = 11Games played – 37Real points = 49 | Expected points = 41.5713. Southampton – Real position = 16Games played – 37Real points = 38 | Expected points = 43.7012. Watford – Real position = 10Games played – 37Real points = 50 | Expected points = 45.34

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11. Crystal Palace – Real position = 12Games played – 37Real points = 46 | Expected points = 49.8810. Bournemouth – Real position = 13Games played – 37Real points = 45 | Expected points = 50.749. Everton – Real position = 8Games played – 37Real points = 53 | Expected points = 53.196

The Everton players celebrate a goal from Seamus Coleman

8. Leicester – Real position = 9Games played – 37Real points = 51 | Expected points = 55.737. Arsenal – Real position = 5Games played – 37Real points = 67 | Expected points = 56.816. Wolves – Real position = 7Games played – 37Real points = 57 | Expected points = 59.175. Manchester United – Real position = 6Games played – 37Real points = 66 | Expected points = 60.396

Scott McTominay’s opened the scoring for Manchester United before Huddersfield equalised on Sunday

4. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 3Games played – 37Real points = 70 | Expected points = 61.003. Chelsea – Real position = 4Games played – 37Real points = 71 | Expected points = 69.232. Liverpool – Real position = 2Games played – 37Real points = 94 | Expected points = 81.441. Manchester City – Real position = 1Games played – 37Real points = 95 | Expected points = 88.146

Kompany struck an incredible shot from distance to seal Man City a vital victory

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match. Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
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But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by 'Expected Goals'? Here at talkSPORT.com we're always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats. Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
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